🏀 NBA predictions.

Covers / EV Analytics: uses a directly published full-game projection matched to the exact player, team, game date and statistic. Over/Under here compares that projection with the saved PrizePicks Standard line. The original Covers pick and its line are shown separately, because sportsbook and PrizePicks lines can differ. Covers probabilities, EV and star ratings are not transferred.

Covers supports direct points, 3-pointers, rebounds and assists projections. Model 2 keeps its original six markets. Combined props are not inferred or added together. Missing published matches remain clearly identified. The earlier potential-assist Model 1 stays retired; its archive is preserved.

Model 2 · 80/20 opponent history: 80% of the player’s current-season average with the current team plus 20% of their average in up to ten verified games against this opponent, using this and last regular season. Uses only completed games before capture day. Each combined prop sums the actual component statistics within each game. One verified current-season game is enough for an explicitly labeled estimate; sample sizes are shown. Where opponent history is absent, a current-season-only fallback is clearly labeled.

Expected winner and margin come from the matched game’s market favorite/spread. Large spreads flag possible starter playing-time risk; they do not automatically mean Over or Under and no untrained numerical multiplier is applied. The earlier minimum-gap and minutes-stability filters are not part of this replacement formula. Exact projection/line ties carry no directional lean. Earlier model forecasts remain preserved in the archive; the model selector shows only the two active models.